Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; & Jampaklay, Aree. (2016). Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach. Population and Environment, 38(1), 47-71. PMCID: PMC5004973

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; & Jampaklay, Aree. (2016). Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach. Population and Environment, 38(1), 47-71. PMCID: PMC5004973

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This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.




JOUR



Entwisle, Barbara
Williams, Nathalie E.
Verdery, Ashton M.
Rindfuss, Ronald R.
Walsh, Stephen J.
Malanson, George P.
Mucha, Peter J.
Frizzelle, Brian G.
McDaniel, Philip M.
Yao, Xiaozheng
Heumann, Benjamin W.
Prasartkul, Pramote
Sawangdee, Yothin
Jampaklay, Aree



2016


Population and Environment

38

1

47-71








PMC5004973


9306

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