Cholera Prediction Using Environmental Information
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Project Summary
Cholera is a major problem in many parts of the world, and it is endemic in Bangladesh and Vietnam. Research into the indirect causes of cholera indicates that environmental factors such as sea surface temperature and ocean chlorophyll concentration play a role in outbreaks. This investigation uses 25 years of data to examine the environmental drivers of cholera in Bangladesh and Vietnam using population-derived and spatially derived variables. Our research suggests that the effects of both sea surface temperature and ocean chlorophyll concentration have a lag effect and that more rainfall and river discharge usually reduces cholera outbreaks unless localized flooding that inundates water and sanitation systems has the opposite effect. These within and between site comparisons and prediction models are applicable for development of an early warning system for cholera. The project is presently being extended to simultaneously investigate the local-level environmental drivers described above and regional climate drivers such as El Nino.
Project Team Members
Michael Emch
Caryl Feldacker
Veronica Escamilla
Janey Messina
Publications
Emch, M.; Feldacker, C.; Islam, M.S.; Ali, M. (2008) Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns. International Journal of Health Geographics. 7 (31): 1-33.link to article
Emch, M.; Feldacker, C.; Yunus, M.; Streatfield, P.K.; Thiem, V.D.; Canh, DG; Ali, M. (2008) Local environmental drivers of cholera in Bangladesh and Vietnam. American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene. 78 (5): 823-32.link to article
Ruiz-Moreno, D.; Pascual, M.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M. (submitted) Spatial clustering in the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic cholera.
Presentations
Messina, J.; Emch, M.; Feldacker, C. 2009. Seasonality of Global Cholera Patterns, 1930 to 2005. Paper presented at the Association of American Geographers, Las Vegas, NV, March 26th.
Emch, M.; Ali, M.; Escamilla, V.; Feldacker, C. 2009. Local population and regional environmental drivers of cholera in Bangladesh.” Paper presented at the Association of American Geographers, Las Vegas, NV, March 26th.
Feldacker, C., Escamilla, V., Emch., M., 2008. “Protecting populations: using variables to predict cholera in Bangladesh and Vietnam." Poster presented at the 2008 Population Association of America conference, New Orleans, LA. April 18th. Winner: 1st place, poster competition.
Escamilla, V.; Emch, M.; Feldacker, C.; Yunus, M.; Thiem, V.D.; and Ali, M. "Local environmental drivers of cholera in Bangladesh and Vietnam." SouthEastern Division of the Association of American Geographers Annual Conference, Greensboro, NC. October 24, 2008.
Emch, M.E., Feldacker, C., Escamilla, V. 2007. “Developing a cholera early warning system using environmental information." Poster presented at the 42nd United States–Japan Conference on Cholera and Other Bacterial Enteric Infections, Austin, Texas. Dec 5-7.
Feldacker, C., and Emch, M.E. 2007. "Environmental influences on cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh and Vietnam: Implications for prevention and prediction." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Public Health Association, Washington, DC. November 6.
Feldacker, C., and Emch, M.E. 2007. “Developing a cholera early warning system using environmental information." Paper presented at the National Institute of Health and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam. June 27.
Emch, M.E., and Feldacker, C. 2007. “Predicting cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh and Vietnam using environmental information." Paper presented at the Cholera Working Group Technical Meeting: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh. May 15.
Emch, M.E., and Feldacker, C. 2007. “Developing a cholera early warning system using environmental information." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers, San Francisco. April 19.
Funding
NOAA: Oceans and Human Health, “Cholera Across Scales: Oceanic Links to Climate and Local Estuarine Influences.” 2005-08.
NOAA: Oceans and Human Health, “Cholera and Climate II: Disentangling the Interactions of Pathogen, Environment and Host Immunity.” 2008-09.
Collaborating Institutions
International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh
