New Forecasting Methodology Indicates More Disease and Earlier Mortality ahead for Today’s Younger Americans

Reither, Eric N.; Olshansky, S. Jay; & Yang, Yang. (2011). New Forecasting Methodology Indicates More Disease and Earlier Mortality ahead for Today’s Younger Americans. Health Affairs, 30(8), 1562-8.

Reference Type:
Journal Article

Secondary Title:

Series Title:

Author(s):
Reither, Eric N.
Olshansky, S. Jay
Yang, Yang

Editor(s):

Series Author(s):

Year Published:
2011

Date Published:

Journal Name:
Health Affairs

Volume Number:
30

Issue Number:
8

Start Page Number:
1562-8

End Page Number:

Edition:
20110623

Series Volume:

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ISSN/ISBN:

DOI:
10.1377/hlthaff.2011.0092

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Reference ID:
5012

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Abstract:

Traditional methods of projecting population health statistics, such as estimating future death rates, can give inaccurate results and lead to inferior or even poor policy decisions. A new “three-dimensional” method of forecasting vital health statistics is more accurate because it takes into account the delayed effects of the health risks being accumulated by today’s younger generations. Applying this forecasting technique to the US obesity epidemic suggests that future death rates and health care expenditures could be far worse than currently anticipated. We suggest that public policy makers adopt this more robust forecasting tool and redouble efforts to develop and implement effective obesity-related prevention programs and interventions.

Keyword(s):
Life Course Perspectives

URL:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2011.0092

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Citation:

Reither, Eric N.; Olshansky, S. Jay; & Yang, Yang. (2011). New Forecasting Methodology Indicates More Disease and Earlier Mortality ahead for Today’s Younger Americans. Health Affairs, 30(8), 1562-8.