2005 PAA Posters
Poster Session 1:
Aging, Life Course, Health, Mortality, and Health Care
Projections of the Older Population: An Examination of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Projections over Time
Michelle Cheuk, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Population aging is one of the most important demographic dynamics
affecting families and societies throughout the world. Information on
the number of older people and their proportional share of the total
population help guide policy makers and planners. Projections of the
older population have changed over time as assumptions about future
trends in fertility, mortality, and migration have changed. This paper
examines several different sets of projections of the 65 and over
population and the 85 and over population done at the U.S. Census
Bureau. We examine how these projections have changed over time and
compare past projections with actual population numbers. We
specifically look at assumptions about mortality and compare those
assumptions to the observed mortality levels. We examine the changes in
assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration that account for
this change.
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Poster Session 2:
Education, Gender, Religion, Language and Culture
The Relationship between Gender Socialization and Adolescent Educational Expectations
Shannon N. Davis, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Lisa D. Pearce, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Much empirical research has been devoted to examining how early life
socialization and experiences shape adolescent aspirations. This paper
adds to this body of research by examining adolescent educational
expectations at a crucial developmental stage with a focus on
ideational processes. We test hypotheses derived from the Eccles et al.
model of achievement-related choices regarding links between gender
socialization and expected educational attainment. Using survey data
from children of a nationally representative sample of women in the
United States, we demonstrate a positive relationship between both
gender egalitarianism and self-esteem and expected educational
attainment for ninth- and tenth-grade girls, while no such relationship
exists for ninth- and tenth-grade boys. This relationship persists
after controlling for family characteristics and academic achievement.
Our findings suggest the pivotal role of gender socialization in
shaping girls’ educational trajectories and more generally highlight
the importance of ideology and worldview in the construction of
achievement goals.
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The Effects of School Racial and Ethnic Composition on Academic Achievement in Adolescence
Hedwig Lee, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
This research examines the effects of school racial and ethnic
composition on students’ academic achievement in the U.S. using the
National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (AddHealth) and
Hierarchical Linear Models. This analysis includes Hispanics as an
ethnic group, which stands apart from other research in this area that
has traditionally focused on black and white student racial
composition. In addition, peer group influences are measured by
utilizing the comprehensive peer network data available for all
respondents in the AddHealth sample. Interactions between individual
race/ethnicity and school racial/ethnic composition are also tested to
better understand the possible differential effects of racial/ethnic
composition for each race/ethnicity. This research seeks to test if
racial and ethnic inequality in academic achievement outcomes is partly
explained by differences in school racial/ethnic composition. The
results show that school and peer racial/ethnic composition has
important effects on individual level achievement for white, black and
Hispanic students.
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Poster Session 3:
Fertility, Family Planning, Unions, and Sexual Behavior
Determinants of Provider Intention to Offer Medical Abortions in Bihar and Jharkhand, India
Lisa Patel, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Unsafe abortion is one of the leading causes of maternal mortality and
morbidity in India. Medical abortion using a regimen of mifepristone
coupled with misoprostol was legalized in India in April 2002 and
provides an opportunity to expand women’s options for safe abortions.
Medical abortions have been found to be safe and acceptable for women
living in both urban and rural settings worldwide. No published studies
have looked at provider knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding
medical abortion in India. This study uses 2004 data from probability
sample surveys of over 1,341 health care facilities and 2,455 health
care providers in Bihar and Jharkhand, India to describe factors
associated with family planning providers’ intentions to provide
medical abortions. A better understanding of the characteristics of
abortion services providers is necessary to design effective
interventions to help improve and save the lives of women.
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Accessibility of Family Planning Services and Contraceptive Use
Dynamics among Limited Mobility Populations in the Western Chitwan
Valley of Nepal
Elizabeth G. Sutherland, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Limited mobility populations are of special concern because they are
vulnerable groups whose health outcomes are often highly dependent upon
local services due to a constrained ability to travel to seek care.
Limited mobility populations considered in this analysis are poor
women, women with low status, and women tied closely to home by heavy
natural resource related responsibilities. In this study multilevel
discrete-time hazard models are employed to estimate the impact of
family planning service accessibility on the probablity of adoption and
discontinuation of contraception among limited mobility populations.
The Chitwan Valley Family Study presents a unique opportunity to
examine these relationships because of extensive data collection on
longitudinal contraceptive use, natural resource behaviors, healthcare
service accessibility, family organization, and social participation.
The study presents suggestions for family planning programs seeking to
improve the accessibility of family planning services and the health
outcomes of women with limited mobility.
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Correlates of Condom Use among Adolescent School Boys in Nairobi, Kenya
Marcel Yotebieng, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Carolyn Tucker Halpern, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Ellen M.H. Mitchell, Ipas
Adaora A. Adimora, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Purpose. To examine the association between condom use and perceived
susceptibility to HIV among adolescent males in Nairobi, Kenya. Method.
A cross-sectional logistic regression analysis, based on data from 214
sexually experienced students who completed web-based questionnaires in
the TeenWeb study, was conducted. Condom use at first and most recent
sex, and consistent condom use were regressed on perceived
susceptibility to HIV, and the perceived benefits and obstacles to
condom use.
Results. None of the perceptual factors examined was significantly
associated with condom use. However, later sexual debut and higher SES
were significantly associated with a greater likelihood of condom use
at first sex. Having used a condom at first sex was significantly
associated with more consistent use and use at most recent sex.
Conclusion. Interventions targeted at conveying the benefits of condom
use for HIV prevention and at delaying sexual debut are needed.
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Poster Session 4:
Migration, Income, Employment, Neighborhoods and Residential Context
Household Dynamics, Village Characteristics and Consumption Patterns in Nang Rong, Thailand
Susana B. Adamo, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Rural areas of developing countries have undergone a number of
transformations, which include economic, social and demographic
changes. These transformations have resulted in increasing
heterogeneity, the fading of the identity between rural and
agriculture, and a more “urbanized” lifestyle. In this context, the aim
of the paper is to examine changes in consumption (looking at basic
services, social services and durable goods) in relation to two sets of
determinants, namely household dynamics and villages’ characteristics,
in the rural district of Nang Rong, Thailand. The data come from a
prospective and multilevel (individuals, households and villages)
survey covering all the households in 51 villages of the district,
fielded in 1984, 1994 and 2000. Preliminary results show, as expectd,
the presence of overall changes in consumption between 1984 and 2000.
They also highlight the role of the villages in the provision of and
access to services, and the increasing differentiation among
households.
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Divergent Pathways: An Examination of Race Differences in Women’s Labor Force Exit Patterns
Tyson H. Brown, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
This study uses five waves of panel data from the Health and Retirement
Study (HRS) in tandem with multivariate event history models and a life
course perspective to explore racial disparities in labor force exit
behavior among women. analyzes suggest that Black women are
disadvantaged relative to White women with respect to educational
attainment, work and family patterns, income, wealth, and health, and
that these disparities underlie race differences in labor force exit
patterns. Specifically, compared to White women, Black women are less
likely to exit the labor force via retirement and are more likely to
exit the labor force due to a disability. Theoretical implications of
this study and policy relevance are also discussed.
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Quantifying the Urban Environment: A Newly Constructed Scale of Urbanicity Outperforms the Traditional Urban-Rural Dichotomy
Darren L. Dahly, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Linda Adair, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
The rapid urbanization of the developing world has important
consequences for human health. Although several authorities have called
for better research on the relationships between urbanicity and health,
most researchers still use a poor measurement of urbanicity, the
urban-rural dichotomy. Our goal was to construct a scale of urbanicity
using community level data from the Cebu Longitudinal Health and
Nutrition Survey. We used established scale development methods to
validate the new measure, and tested its performance against the
dichotomy. The new scale illustrated misclassification by the
urban-rural dichotomy, and was able to detect differences in
urbanicity, both between communities and across time, that were not
apparent before. Furthermore, using a continuous measure of urbanicity
allows for much more meaningful illustrations of the relationships
between urbanicity and health. The new scale is a better measure of
urbanicity than the traditionally used urban-rural dichotomy.
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Internal Migration of Floodplain Populations in Four Riverine U.S. Cities
Daniel H. de Vries, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
James Fraser, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Since the early 1970s “buyout” programs which acquire and remove
repetitively flooded properties from flood prone areas have been
implemented in hundreds of communities across the United States as a
new focus in the Federal Emergency Management Administration’s (FEMA)
overall strategy to mitigate flood losses. Yet, very little is known
about floodplain and buyout populations and the consequences and
motivations behind such small-scale risk induced internal migrations.
This paper will provides a descriptive socio-demographic and geographic
overview of a buyout population sample from four U.S. cities that
experienced flooding and decided to participate in a buyout program in
order to relocated elsewhere. The surveyed Cities are Austin (TX),
Grand Forks (ND), Kinston (NC), and Greenville (NC). Two questions will
be answered. First, what populations are impacted by buyout and
acquisitions programs? Second, to what extent did this demographic
displacement help property owners relocate to better off areas? Results
illustrate the population diversity and commonalities across sites.
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Neighborhood Crime, Deprivation and Preterm Birth
Lynne Messer, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Jay S. Kaufman, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Barbara A. Laraia, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
David A. Savitz, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
This study addresses two questions about how the neighborhood crime and
deprivation environments may contribute to the disparity in preterm
births between black and white non-Hispanic women for 14,758 live
births within 131 Raleigh NC census block groups (1999-2001). It finds
first that black and white women live in distinct neighborhood
environments, as approximated by their neighborhood deprivation score
and block group violent, theft, property and vice crime counts (i.e.,
almost 50% of black women live in block groups with very high counts of
violent crime compared with under 10% of white women). Second, it finds
the odds of preterm birth associated with crime (by type) and
deprivation to be different for black and white women in this sample,
after adjusting for individual and neighborhood covariates. These
findings suggest differential neighborhood exposure may contribute to
the preterm burden borne by black non-Hispanic women in this country.
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Measuring Housing Quality in the Absence of a Monetized Real Estate Market: The Case of Rural Northeast Thailand
Martin Piotrowski, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Varachai Thongthai, Mahidol University
Pramote Prasartkul, Mahidol University
Dwelling units are found universally throughout every society. The
quality of accommodations can vary considerably from household to
household, and in some contexts, creating a measure of housing quality
can be quite difficult. In many settings, putting a price on a dwelling
unit is fairly straightforward. However, in settings where an active
real estate market does not exist, where household members supply the
labor themselves to construct their house, and where houses are
frequently constructed or improved incrementally over time, it is
extremely difficult to monetize the value of dwelling units. In this
paper we develop a new approach to the measurement of housing quality
as part of a larger on-going longitudinal data collection in Nang Rong,
Thailand. We develop a method of measuring the relative quality rating
of several dwelling units that takes advantage of general knowledge
within an area as to what constitutes high-quality versus low quality
housing.
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Poster Session 5:
Union Formation and Dissolution, Fertility, Family and Well-being
Household Structure and Infant Feeding Behavior among Low-Income African Americans
Judith B. Borja, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Jean Hamilton, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Michelle Mendez, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Margaret Bentley, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Carby-Shields Kenitra, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
While substantial research has explored how household structure may
influence numerous domains of child well-being, data are more limited
with respect to effects on current diet and feeding patterns in the
U.S. This study of low-income African Americans--a population at high
risk of obesity--explores whether household structure is related to
infant feeding behaviors that may promote rapid weight gain in early
life and increase the long-term risk of obesity. We found that compared
to households with grandmothers or fathers, single mother households
were less likely to exhibit feeding behaviors (e.g. talking to the
child to encourage eating) thought to promote appropriate eating.
However, we found no difference across all household types in other
behaviors which could promote obesity (e.g. trying to get the child to
finish his/her food). Further research is needed to confirm our
preliminary results and to ascertain which behaviors may be normative
in this population.
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Early Sexual Debut and Sexually Transmitted Infections in Adolescents and Young Adults
Christine E. Kaestle, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Carolyn Tucker Halpern, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
William Miller, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Carol Ford, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Objectives: Test the relationship between age of first vaginal
intercourse and sexually transmitted infection (STI) and examine
variation by current age, sex, race and ethnicity. Methods: A
nationally representative sample of 9,844 respondents ages 18-26 was
interviewed and tested for chlamydial infection, gonorrhea, and
trichomoniasis in Wave III of Add Health. Results: Early ages of debut
were associated with higher odds of STIs compared to later debut, but
the effect diminished with increasing age. For example, the odds of
having an STI for an 18 year old with debut at age 13 were over twice
those of an 18 year old with debut at age 17. In contrast, the odds of
an STI among 24 year olds with debut at age 13 vs. debut at age 17 were
the same. Conclusions: Earlier sexual debut is strongly associated with
STIs for older adolescents but not for young adults over age 23.
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Household Strategy, Return Migration and the Role of Remittance in Nang Rong, Thailand
Yuying Tong, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Martin Piotrowski, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
This study examines the effect of remittances on return migration using
social survey data from Nang Rong, Thailand. We use a longitudinal
design spanning three waves of data, which avoids problems inherent in
many existing studies. Our findings are consistent with the view that
migration and remittance are part of a household strategy whereby
migrants leave in order to earn money, which they send back as
remittance, thereafter returning to their origin household. While
remittance is positively related to return migration, it is especially
so if the household owns agricultural equipment. This suggests that
migrants pursue a self-interested strategy motivated by the inheritance
or safeguard of property.
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Poster Session 6:
Applied Demography, Methods, Health and Mortality
Adjusting for Unequal Selection Probability in Structural Equation
and Multilevel Models: Applications to Demographic Survey Data
Kim Chantala, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
C. M. Suchindran, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Most demographic surveys collect data using complex sampling plans
involving selection of both clusters and individuals with unequal
probability of selection. Research in methods of using structural
equation modeling (SEM) and multilevel modeling (MLM) procedures to
analyze such data is relatively new. Often sampling weights based on
selection probabilities of individuals are used to estimate
population-based models. However, sampling weights used for estimating
multilevel models need to be constructed differently than weights used
for single-level (population-average) models. This paper provides
guidelines for using SEM or MLM techniques with complex survey data.
First, the capabilities of popular SEM and MLM analysis software for
analyzing data collected with a complex sampling plan are summarized.
Next, we discuss how sampling weights needed for MLM analysis differ
from weights needed for analyzing population-average models. Finally,
we use existing software to demonstrate SEM and MLM analysis using data
from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescents.
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Covariate Analysis of Multistate Life Tables: Application to Women’s Contraceptive Dynamics
C. M. Suchindran, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Tzy-Mey (May) Kuo, Research Triangle Institute
Helen P. Koo, Research Triangle Institute
Past research indicates that women often make changes among several
contraceptive methods. Multi-state life table method is a useful tool
for examining such a dynamic behavior. Currently, the method is used as
a descriptive tool lacking capability for covariate analysis of data.
This paper fills the gap by performing covariate analysis of
multi-state life tables. We derived transition probabilities for
multi-state life tables using multinomial logit models via the
Generalized Estimating Equations approach to take into account the
correlation among multiple observations from a given woman. We also
computed summary measures from multi-state life tables. We used
contraceptive history data from 1840 women to estimate models
containing race, education, age, and gravidity at baseline as
covariates. Results indicate that Black women switched their
contraceptive methods more often than Whites. Women with less than high
school education also made more changes and had more pregnancies than
better educated women.
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Demography, Socioeconomics, and Geography: Endeavoring to Explain
Land Cover Change in and around the Cuyabeno Wildlife Reserve, Ecuador
Christine M. Erlien, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Carlos F. Mena, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Alisson F. Barbieri, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Stephen J. Walsh, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
The literature on land cover change in national parks and protected
areas is limited, prompting Sanchez-Azofeifa (2001) to comment,
“information is sparse on the nature, dynamics, and spatial dimension
of land use and land cover change processes that contribute to park
vulnerability.” This work aims to provide information about landscape
changes in and around the Cuyabeno Wildlife Reserve as well as extend
the study of landscape change in parks and protected areas by examining
possible socio-economic, demographic, and geographic drivers. Datasets
integrated for this project include a 1998/99 cross-sectional survey of
652 households located in territory ceded by the Reserve, a 2000 survey
of communities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon, a 2001 survey of
indigenous communities within and nearby the Reserve, a satellite image
time-series, and a GIS database of geographic accessibility and
resource endowments. Land cover change will be quantified and three OLS
models of land cover change estimated.
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