Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood?

Arocho, Rachel R. (2019). Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood? Journal of Marriage and Family, 81(4), 979-90.

Arocho, Rachel R. (2019). Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood? Journal of Marriage and Family, 81(4), 979-90.

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Objective: This study describes the association between explicit expectations of divorce and subsequent first union formation during the transition to adulthood (ages 18–28). Background: Expectations for marriage in young adulthood predict union formation. Even before marrying, young adults may express a perceived risk of eventual divorce, and expectations of divorce may also have implications for union formation during the transition to adulthood. Method: Data from the 2005 to 2015 years of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Supplement (n = 2,052) were used to estimate the association between expectations of divorce and entry into first premarital cohabitation and first marriage using discrete‐time logistic and multinomial logistic survival models. Results: As hypothesized, greater expectations for divorce predicted slower entrance into first marriage, even when controlling for expectations for marriage and various sociodemographic characteristics, and predicted a greater likelihood of both remaining single and being first observed cohabiting instead of marrying in young adulthood for both men and women. Conclusion: Despite desiring to marry, young adults may delay marriage if they are concerned about their risk of future divorce.




JOUR



Arocho, Rachel R.



2019

P2C-Yes. T32-Yes. "This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant DGE‐1343012. Any opinion, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. This research received support from a Population Research Training Grant (T32 HD007168) and the Population Research Infrastructure Program (P2C HD050924) awarded to the Carolina Population Center at The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. The collection of data used in this study was partly supported by the National Institutes of Health under Grant R01 HD069609 and R01 AG040213 and the National Science Foundation under Awards SES 1157698 and 1623684."

Journal of Marriage and Family

81

4

979-90










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