CitationArocho, Rachel R. (2019). Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood?. Journal of Marriage and Family, 81(4), 979-990. PMCID: PMC6748045
AbstractOBJECTIVE: This study describes the association between explicit expectations to divorce and subsequent first union formation over the transition to adulthood (ages 18-28).
BACKGROUND: Expectations for marriage in young adulthood predict union formation. Even before marrying, young adults may express a perceived risk of eventual divorce, and expectations of divorce may also have implications for union formation over the transition to adulthood.
METHOD: Data from the 2005-2015 years of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Supplement (n = 2052) were used to estimate the association between expectations to divorce and entry into first premarital cohabitation and first marriage using discrete-time logistic and multinomial logistic survival models.
RESULTS: As hypothesized, greater expectations for divorce predicted slower entrance into first marriage, even controlling for expectations for marriage and various sociodemographic characteristics, and predicted a greater likelihood of both remaining single and being first observed cohabiting instead of marrying in young adulthood for both men and women.
CONCLUSION: Despite desiring to marry, young adults may delay marriage if they are concerned about their risk of future divorce.