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Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood?

Citation

Arocho, Rachel R. (2019). Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood?. Journal of Marriage and Family, 81(4), 979-990. PMCID: PMC6748045

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This study describes the association between explicit expectations to divorce and subsequent first union formation over the transition to adulthood (ages 18-28).
BACKGROUND: Expectations for marriage in young adulthood predict union formation. Even before marrying, young adults may express a perceived risk of eventual divorce, and expectations of divorce may also have implications for union formation over the transition to adulthood.
METHOD: Data from the 2005-2015 years of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Supplement (n = 2052) were used to estimate the association between expectations to divorce and entry into first premarital cohabitation and first marriage using discrete-time logistic and multinomial logistic survival models.
RESULTS: As hypothesized, greater expectations for divorce predicted slower entrance into first marriage, even controlling for expectations for marriage and various sociodemographic characteristics, and predicted a greater likelihood of both remaining single and being first observed cohabiting instead of marrying in young adulthood for both men and women.
CONCLUSION: Despite desiring to marry, young adults may delay marriage if they are concerned about their risk of future divorce.

URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12571

Reference Type

Journal Article

Article Type

Regular

Year Published

2019

Journal Title

Journal of Marriage and Family

Author(s)

Arocho, Rachel R.

PMCID

PMC6748045

Data Set/Study

Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Supplement

Continent/Country

United States of America

State

Nonspecific