Simulating Complexity in a Dynamic Landscape 2001 - 2005
Background
Land use changes are significantly altering land cover, and various
branches of science are requesting realistic models of LULCC at
multiple and interacting spatial and temporal scales. The
development of predictive scenarios of LULCC in Nang Rong, Thailand, is
a vital part of the ongoing program of research focused on social,
demographic, and environmental change in this region.
Purpose
The recent National Academy of Sciences report on the "Grand Challenges
in Environmental Science" mentions explicitly the need to develop
innovative applications of dynamic spatial simulation techniques as one
component of the challenge "to develop a systematic understanding of
changes in land uses and land covers critical to ecosystem functioning
and human welfare." This research uses unique multi-thematic and
spatially explicit data combined with expert knowledge, a set of
analytic results, and dynamic modeling approaches to describe, explain,
and explore the consequences of land cover and land use change in Nang
Rong.
Scope of Work
Researchers are using the rich data collected and assembled for Nang
Rong district, and building on earlier analyses by Nang Rong
investigators. They are examining scenarios based on empirical
relationships in seven areas, ranging from the history of village
settlement, to monsoon history, to construction of the electric
grid. Results of the scenario simulations will be used to examine
the spatial distribution as well as the composition of LULCC,
LULCC trajectories at the pixel and other levels, and temporal and
spatial scale dependencies.
Analytical Methods
First, a cellular automaton (CA) model representing LULCC is being
developed, calibrated, and validated using a time series of remotely
sensed satellite and aircraft images from Northeast Thailand lined to
spatially referenced biophysical and socioeconomic coverages as input
data combined with "rules" derived from empirical analyses of those
data. Second, the CA model will be used in dynamic simulations to
explore LULCC as both cause and consequence of : a) patterns of village
settlement in a frontier environment; b) road development and increases
in vehicular traffic; c) migration and household formation; d) land
tenure; e) monsoonal variability; f) agricultural intensification; g)
cooperative use of the hydrological layer; h) major shifts in world
markets; and i) electrification, rise in television ownership, and the
spread of consumerism.
Contributions to the Field
The Nang Rong data, including extensive social network data, allows
scientists to incorporate meaningful information about human behavior
and decisions into models. The simulation will be packaged into a
multimedia GIS database together with other materials explaining the
site and situation, adapted to and tested for use at the secondary and
college levels in the U.S. and Thailand, and then made publicly
available on the Internet. See publications for a list of
publications and presentations emanating from this work.
Funding
This project is funded by a National Science Foundation grant.