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Risk Prediction Models for Head and Neck Cancer in the US Population from the INHANCE Consortium


Lee, Yuan-Chin Amy; Al-Temimi, Mohammed; Ying, Jian; Muscat, Joshua E.; Olshan, Andrew F.; Zevallos, Jose P.; Winn, Deborah M.; Li, Guojun; Sturgis, Erich M.; & Morgenstern, Hal, et al. (2020). Risk Prediction Models for Head and Neck Cancer in the US Population from the INHANCE Consortium. American Journal of Epidemiology, 189(4), 330-42. PMCID: PMC7274188


Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk prediction models based on risk factor profiles have not yet been developed. We took advantage of the large database including 14 studies (1981-2010) in the US from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium to develop risk prediction models. Seventy percent of the data were used to develop HNC risk prediction models; the remaining 30% were used to validate the models. We used competing risk models to calculate absolute risks. The predictors included age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, alcohol drinking intensity, cigarette smoking duration and intensity or family history of HNC. The 20-year absolute HNC risk was 7.61% for a 60-year-old woman who smoked >20 cigarettes/day for >20 years, drank 3+ alcoholic drinks/day, was a high school graduate, with family history of HNC and was non-Hispanic White. The 20-year risk for men with a similar profile was 6.85%. The absolute risks of oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers were generally lower than those of oral cavity and laryngeal cancers. The AUC statistics were 0.70 or higher except for oropharyngeal cancer in men. The HNC risk prediction model may be useful in promoting healthier behaviors such as smoking cessation, or in aiding individuals with family history of HNC to evaluate their risks.


Reference Type

Journal Article

Journal Title

American Journal of Epidemiology


Lee, Yuan-Chin Amy
Al-Temimi, Mohammed
Ying, Jian
Muscat, Joshua E.
Olshan, Andrew F.
Zevallos, Jose P.
Winn, Deborah M.
Li, Guojun
Sturgis, Erich M.
Morgenstern, Hal
Zhang, Zuo-Feng
Smith, Elaine
Kelsey, Karl T.
McClean, Michael D.
Vaughan, Thomas L.
Lazarus, Philip
Chen, Chu
Schwartz, Stephen M.
Gillison, Maura L.
Schantz, Stimson
Yu, Guo-Pei
D'Souza, Gypsyamber
Gross, Neil
Monroe, Marcus
Kim, Jaewhan
Boffetta, Paolo
Hashibe, Mia

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