Gordon-Larsen, Penny (2020). Novel Approaches Are Needed to Infer Obesity Trajectories Under Different Hypothesized Interventions. Obesity, 28(5)
Understanding the potential for shifting the long‐term trajectories of weight gain across the life cycle is key for the management and prevention of obesity. This is particularly critical in countries facing enormous growth in obesity, such as Australia. In this issue of Obesity, Lung et al. used national representative data from 14,256 adults from the Australian Health Survey to model future adult obesity from 2025 to 2040 under three different scenarios of childhood obesity: (1) stable, (2) increasing, or (3) declining childhood obesity. They modeled these scenarios by adjusting the top three quintiles of the BMI distribution of the 20‐year‐old cohort entering the population each year, assuming uniform changes in the mean BMI from 2016 to 2025 with no subsequent changes thereafter.