Vaccinating Children against COVID-19 Is Crucial to Protect Schools and Communities

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Citation

Rosenstrom, Erik; Mele, Jessica; Ivy, Julie S.; Mayorga, Maria E.; Patel, Mehul D.; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller; Delamater, Paul L.; Smith, Raymond L., 3rd; & Swann, Julie L. (2022). Vaccinating Children against COVID-19 Is Crucial to Protect Schools and Communities. PNAS Nexus, 1(3), pgac081. PMCID: PMC9295200

Abstract

To evaluate the joint impact of childhood vaccination rates and school masking policies on community transmission and severe outcomes due to COVID-19, we utilized a stochastic, agent-based simulation of North Carolina to test 24 health policy scenarios. In these scenarios, we varied the childhood (ages 5 to 19) vaccination rate relative to the adult's (ages 20 to 64) vaccination rate and the masking relaxation policies in schools. We measured the overall incidence of disease, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and mortality from 2021 July 1 to 2023 July 1. Our simulation estimates that removing all masks in schools in January 2022 could lead to a 31% to 45%, 23% to 35%, and 13% to 19% increase in cumulative infections for ages 5 to 9, 10 to 19, and the total population, respectively, depending on the childhood vaccination rate. Additionally, achieving a childhood vaccine uptake rate of 50% of adults could lead to a 31% to 39% reduction in peak hospitalizations overall masking scenarios compared with not vaccinating this group. Finally, our simulation estimates that increasing vaccination uptake for the entire eligible population can reduce peak hospitalizations in 2022 by an average of 83% and 87% across all masking scenarios compared to the scenarios where no children are vaccinated. Our simulation suggests that high vaccination uptake among both children and adults is necessary to mitigate the increase in infections from mask removal in schools and workplaces.

URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac081

Reference Type

Journal Article

Year Published

2022

Journal Title

PNAS Nexus

Author(s)

Rosenstrom, Erik
Mele, Jessica
Ivy, Julie S.
Mayorga, Maria E.
Patel, Mehul D.
Lich, Kristen Hassmiller
Delamater, Paul L.
Smith, Raymond L., 3rd
Swann, Julie L.

Article Type

Regular

PMCID

PMC9295200

Continent/Country

United States of America

State

North Carolina

Race/Ethnicity

Black
White
Hispanic

ORCiD

Delamater - 0000-0003-3627-9739