Inferring the Proportion of Undetected Cholera Infections From Serological and Clinical Surveillance in an Immunologically Naive Population

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Citation

Finger, Flavio; Lemaitre, Joseph C.; Juin, Stanley; Jackson, Brendan; Funk, Sebastian; Lessler, Justin; Mintz, Eric D.; Dely, Patrick; Boncy, Jacques; & Azman, Andrew S. (Preprint). Inferring the Proportion of Undetected Cholera Infections From Serological and Clinical Surveillance in an Immunologically Naive Population. medRxiv. PMCID: PMC10635253

Abstract

Most infections with pandemic Vibrio cholerae are thought to result in subclinical disease and are not captured by surveillance. Previous estimates of the ratio of infections to clinical cases have varied widely (2 to 100). Understanding cholera epidemiology and immunity relies on the ability to translate between numbers of clinical cases and the underlying number of infections in the population. We estimated the infection incidence during the first months of an outbreak in a cholera-naive population using a Bayesian vibriocidal antibody titer decay model combining measurements from a representative serosurvey and clinical surveillance data. 3,880 suspected cases were reported in Grande Saline, Haiti, between 20 October 2010 and 6 April 2011 (clinical attack rate 18.4%). We found that more than 52.6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49.4-55.7) of the population

URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2023.11.01.23297461

Reference Type

Journal Article

Year Published

Preprint

Journal Title

medRxiv

Author(s)

Finger, Flavio
Lemaitre, Joseph C.
Juin, Stanley
Jackson, Brendan
Funk, Sebastian
Lessler, Justin
Mintz, Eric D.
Dely, Patrick
Boncy, Jacques
Azman, Andrew S.

Article Type

Regular

PMCID

PMC10635253

Continent/Country

Haiti

ORCiD

Lessler - 0000-0002-9741-8109