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Complexity Theory and Spatial Simulation Models to Assess Population-Environment Interactions in the Galapagos Islands

Citation

Walsh, Stephen J.; Miller, Brian W.; Breckheimer, Ian; McCleary, Amy L.; Guzmán Ramírez, Liza; Caplow, Susan C.; & Jones-Smith, Jessica C. (2009). Complexity Theory and Spatial Simulation Models to Assess Population-Environment Interactions in the Galapagos Islands.. Wolff, Matthias & Gardener, Mark (Eds.) (pp. 145-148). Puerto Ayora, Galapagos, Ecuador: Charles Darwin Foundation.

Abstract

The intent of this research is to develop a spatial modeling and data visualization approach to study population-environment interactions, i.e., alternate household livelihood strategies, household decision-making, and land use change, with an emphasis on invasive species, on Isabela Island in response to a dynamic environment and changing employment opportunities in fisheries, tourism, and agriculture. A base model of land use/land cover change and household livelihood dynamics is developed and then perturbed by creating three alternative scenarios: (1) an increase in agricultural subsidies, (2) a decrease in global fisheries, and (3) a decline in tourism. The ABMs used in this study allowed us to develop explanations for those scenarios, and examine endogenous factors and exogenous shocks that can alter trajectories of change resulting in possible shifts in system behaviors and dynamics.

URL

http://www.darwinfoundation.org/english/_upload/symposium-proceedings-final.pdf

Reference Type

Book Section

Year Published

2009

Author(s)

Walsh, Stephen J.
Miller, Brian W.
Breckheimer, Ian
McCleary, Amy L.
Guzmán Ramírez, Liza
Caplow, Susan C.
Jones-Smith, Jessica C.