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Kallan, Jeffrey & Udry, J. Richard (1989). Demographic Components of Seasonality of Pregnancy. Journal of Biosocial Science, 21, 101-108.


Previous studies of the seasonality of pregnancy and birth have typically been based on monthly numbers or proportions of pregnancies or births (i.e. their distribution throughout the year) without any explicit accounting of the size of the population actually at risk of pregnancy by month. From data on monthly populations at risk and monthly probabilities of pregnancy this paper determines the relative contribution of each component to the monthly distribution of pregnancies. The data come from the National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle III. While there is some seasonality in the size of the at-risk population, it contributes little to the overall monthly variation of pregnancy, which is determined mainly by seasonality of pregnancy probability (fecundability).


Reference Type

Journal Article

Year Published


Journal Title

Journal of Biosocial Science


Kallan, Jeffrey
Udry, J. Richard