Changing Crops in Response to Climate: Virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an Agent Based Simulation

Download as .RIS

Citation

Malanson, George P.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Sawangdee, Yothin; Heumann, Benjamin W.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; Williams, Nathalie E.; Yao, Xiaozheng; & Entwisle, Barbara, et al. (2014). Changing Crops in Response to Climate: Virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an Agent Based Simulation. Applied Geography, 53, 202-212. PMCID: PMC4105306

Abstract

The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications.

URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.06.010

Reference Type

Journal Article

Year Published

2014

Journal Title

Applied Geography

Author(s)

Malanson, George P.
Verdery, Ashton M.
Walsh, Stephen J.
Sawangdee, Yothin
Heumann, Benjamin W.
McDaniel, Philip M.
Frizzelle, Brian G.
Williams, Nathalie E.
Yao, Xiaozheng
Entwisle, Barbara
Rindfuss, Ronald R.

PMCID

PMC4105306

ORCiD

Entwisle - 0000-0003-0131-1022
Walsh, S - 0000-0001-6274-9381
Frizzelle - 0000-0002-7705-0204