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This project focuses on herd immunity and its relationship with infectious disease outbreak risk at local geographic scales. Using measles and MMR vaccination coverage in California, I will develop and evaluate approaches to define herds within a larger population, identify the geographic scale(s) at which the effects of herd immunity are detectable, and estimate localized disease outbreak risk in the context of these findings. The outcomes of this research will support more accurate and useful estimates of local- and population-level disease outbreak risk and an improved ability to determine when, where, and why infectious disease outbreaks are likely to occur in the future.

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