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Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

Citation

Morgan, S. Philip & Taylor, Miles G. (2006). Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century. Annual Review of Sociology, 32, 375-399. PMCID: PMC2849172

Abstract

In the past few decades, demographic concerns have shifted from rapid population growth fueled by high fertility to concerns of population decline produced by very low, sub-replacement fertility levels. Once considered a problem unique to Europe or developed nations, concerns now center on the global spread of low fertility. Nearly half of the world's population now lives in countries with fertility at or below replacement levels. Further, by the mid-twenty-first century three of four countries now described as developing are projected to reach or slip below replacement fertility. We review the research on low fertility through the predominant frameworks and theories used to explain it. These explanations range from decomposition and proximate determinant frameworks to grand theories on the fundamental causes underlying the pervasiveness and spread of low fertility. We focus on the ability of theory to situate previous and future findings and conclude with directions for furthur research.

URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.31.041304.122220

Reference Type

Journal Article

Year Published

2006

Journal Title

Annual Review of Sociology

Author(s)

Morgan, S. Philip
Taylor, Miles G.

PMCID

PMC2849172