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Contraceptive Failure and Its Subsequent Effects in China: A Two-Stage Event History Analysis


Wang, Duolao; Diamond, Ian; & Curtis, Siân L. (1998). Contraceptive Failure and Its Subsequent Effects in China: A Two-Stage Event History Analysis. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, 13(1), 45-64.


This study examined sociodemographic and contraceptive use factors that affect contraceptive failure (CF) during the first 8.5 years of contraceptive use and pregnancy outcomes in China. Data were obtained from complete fertility and contraceptive histories among 17,887 currently married women, aged 15-57 years, included in the 1988 Two-per-Thousand Fertility Survey. 4053 contraceptive use periods during 1980-88 ended in failure. The methods of Trussel and Hammerslough (1983) were used to estimate method-specific hazard models of CF. Findings of relative risk indicate that for male and female sterilization, duration of use and number of living children were determinants of CF among only rural couples. The rate of CF was greatest in the first few months and declined to almost zero after 36 months. Rural women with 3 or more children had a significantly higher rate of CF. The effect of female sterilization had a smaller effect on duration. Significant determinants of CF for mixed methods were duration of use, age at start of use, and number of living children. Risk of CF, after 1984, was lower by 18-32% depending upon method. 61.7% and 62.4% of CFs for male and female sterilization, respectively, resulted in live births. 45.0% of IUD CFs and under 25.0% of reversible method CFs resulted in live births. Number of living children was a significant determinant of a live birth outcome. More children was related to a greater risk of a live birth. The demographic impact of CFs varied by method and area of residence.

Reference Type

Journal Article

Year Published


Journal Title

Asia-Pacific Population Journal


Wang, Duolao
Diamond, Ian
Curtis, Siân L.