Savitz, David A. (1994). In Defense of Black Box Epidemiology. Epidemiology, 5(5)
Assume that an epidemiologic study has been conducted reporting a positive association of an exposure and a disease. The investigators selected subjects in a manner free of selection bias, response was excellent, accurate data were collected concerning exposure, potential confounders were carefully measured and controlled as needed, and a clear positive association with a dose-response gradient was found. Given this epidemiologic study, let us now vary the biological context for these results. In Scenario A, assume that there are prior studies of the exposure in experimental animals
Savitz, David A.